The changing circumstances, choices, and careers of women in India will shape the outcomes on demographics, demand, and destiny.
We look at key macro trends to identify how the future could unfold.
Elections
With the Lok Sabha elections around the corner, the Election Commission announced that, as of January 1, they had close to a billion registered voters. To put in context, the total votes cast in the US Presidential elections in 2020 were around 160 million. Out of the 968 million registered voters in India, 497 million are women. The interesting aspect is that the elector gender ratio (number of women voters per thousand male voters) has gone up from 928 in 2019 to 948 in 2024. In absolute terms, this means that 40 million women voters were added to the registered voter list over this period as compared to 32 million men. Over the last couple of decades, women voter participation (voting percentage) has matched and then been higher than men. If this trend persists, the absolute number of votes cast by women may be higher than men in coming elections.
Education
The January 2024 report by the Chief Economic Advisor, “The Indian Economy – A Review” noted that more girls are now enrolled for higher education than boys. The Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) for girls is 27.9% in FY20 vis-a-vis 12.7% in FY10. Female GER in senior secondary education has more than doubled from 24.5% in FY05 to 58.2% in FY22 and the GER of girls in the schools at the secondary level has increased to 79.4% in FY22 from 75.5% in FY15. Across all levels of education, girls have seen improved access to formal education. As we have known through the years, in standardized examinations (board exams), girls continue to outshine boys in overall performance. With women investing longer time in education, this pushes forward the average age of marriage. More educated women also tend to have lesser children.
Jobs
The annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data showed that the rise in labour force is primarily due to higher female participation, specifically in rural areas. Using the PLFS data over the years, we calculate that India witnessed an addition of 81 million to its labour force over 2022-23 and 2017-18 under the current weekly status. Of these 81 million, three-fifths of the labour entrants (or 48 million) came from women in rural areas; overall labour force for men increased by 22 million and 10 million women joined in urban India. Rural female labour force increased by 9.3 percentage points over five years to 25.4% in 2022-23 from 16.1% in 2017-18. Now, only one-in-five (19.1%) women seek work in urban India, one-in-four (25.4%) do so in rural India. The Economic Survey 2022-23 had noted that PLFS female labour force participation rate is underestimated as it does not include productive work done by women as part of household duties.
Wages
The increase in rural female labour force is largely driven by those who are ‘self-employed’, i.e., either work in their own enterprises or as a helper in households. Self-employed women in rural areas have increased by 13.3 percentage points to 71% in 2022-23 from 57.7% in 2017-18. All of this shows up in the wage gap that exists between the genders. Analysis of the PLFS data suggests that, on average, women regular wage workers earn 75% of men, casual labour 64%, and self-employed women 42%. The pay gap has been attributed to many reasons including the type of work, number of hours worked, output differences, among others. As more women start to undertake paid work and the pay differential with men narrow, it could usher in an element of financial independence. A higher level of educational attainment could help perpetuate this trend.
Fertility
As per the fifth round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) during the year 2019-21, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0 children per woman from 2.2 children per woman as per the fourth round of NFHS conducted during the year 2015-16, resulting in the achievement of the replacement level of fertility, which is 2.1 children per woman. This is an important milestone in the demographic development of any country. As and when the census data comes, it will be important to study it closely for its geographic trends, among others. We note that the Election Commission releases the data on the annual number of electors who sign up in the 18-19 years age: this number has hovered between 12 million and 15 million a year for 2019-23 with a spike up to 19 million in 2024. These numbers represent children born a couple of decades ago. As fertility rates have fallen, we may see these numbers trend down over time. A large part of the increase in India’s population will now come from the increased life expectancy.
Lower fertility, a more balanced sex ratio, more educated women seeking work, and an engaged electorate—these long-term trends point to a positively changing landscape for women in India. A more confident half of the population can unlock large consumption potential and add a strong pillar to growth.
The author is with the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund Limited. Views are personal.
