Tag: Macro-economy

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State finances: Finding the monies

As the Centre and States try to find GST compensation cess monies, it is time to look beyond the present, to see how the future could unfold for State finances. The financial relationship between states and the Centre has been in news recently. The Fifteenth Finance Commission submitted its report to the president; there have been some delays in payment of the GST compensation … Read More State finances: Finding the monies

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Fiscal architecture for a US$5 trillion economy

The evolution of India’s tax-to-GDP ratio will require significant political and social consensus—a strategic modelling and planning of tax POLICIES is required. India’s tax-to-GDP ratio at the government level has hovered around 18-19% of GDP over the last few years (between FY17 and FY20E). Coupled with disinvestments, dividends, and other receipts, the central government mops up another 5-6% of GDP, taking the total revenues … Read More Fiscal architecture for a US$5 trillion economy

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Housing needs a stronger mortgage market

A house is not merely a place to live and build a life, it is also one of the most significant assets of the family. An investment in a house roots a family to a location, giving them a significant stake in the development of the local area. Housing is a fundamental requirement of human existence. The requirement of shelter is so basic that … Read More Housing needs a stronger mortgage market

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Guiding markets from crisis to calm

This requires confidence, coordination and capital; resolution can’t be imposed using policy actions. When commemorating anniversaries, we tend to reserve our special attention for round-number, decadal years. Last year, around this time, the world—and India—remembered and recounted its lessons from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that reverberated across the globe in September 2008. Since it is the nature of history to repeat, but not … Read More Guiding markets from crisis to calm

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Leveraging open data for policy making

Large digital databases like the GST Network can give granular insight, create predictive models; this can lead to more grounded interventions. A lot has been said about the current economic slowdown. Econometricians have opined on whether the fall in growth rate is structural or cyclical; economists have wondered whether the response has to be from the supply side or whether demand needs a boost; … Read More Leveraging open data for policy making

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Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

From purely a financial perspective of current account deficit, the distinction between goods and services does not matter. The exports performance of Vietnam continues to be contrasted with that of India: the most recent example being the editorial in this newspaper, “Can India learn from Vietnam to manage export-led growth?”. The article, similar to other analyses on this topic, focusses on the significant ramp-up … Read More Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

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India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

The announcement of this policy statement in the Budget follows the release of the ‘Rupee Raftaar’ report at the Global Aviation Summit in Mumbai in January earlier this year. The Finance Minister, in her maiden budget, laid the foundation of building an important component of the aviation sector: “As the world’s third largest domestic aviation market, the time is ripe for India to enter … Read More India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

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India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

The knife-edge balanced nature of Government finances means that there is little leeway available for the Central and State Governments whenever there is a shortfall in receipts or an increase in expenditure. In both cases, they automatically reflect in a substantial change in the fiscal deficit. As India moves towards a US$5 trillion GDP economy, the current slowdown and the longer-term runway offers two … Read More India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

India’s current fiscal architecture: 3+4+5+6=18

Since the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India, the Central Government is now a primary decision-maker on almost all the taxes in the country. With an effective veto power in the GST Council and its ability to set the income and corporate taxes and various custom duties, the Central Government now has a say on the rates at which taxes are … Read More India’s current fiscal architecture: 3+4+5+6=18

TEDxFidelityInternational

Talk on Location-Casting: Taking You Near Your Customers More details here. Unfortunately, no video. 

Took a 2-hour long class on Business and Public Policy for Vedica Scholars

Run by the Centre for Civil Society, Vedica Scholars brings together a bunch of bright ladies who are interested in business and public policy. Link

CAD: Unless India reverses sustainably, net foreign assets may stay negative

The Financial Express Unless it reverses sustainably, India’s net foreign assets are expected to remain negative India’s financial relationship with the world has two large components: (1) a large trade account deficit balanced by services exports and remittances which still leaves a meaningful CAD financed by (2) large net inward flows of foreign capital. India’s large and consistent current account deficit (CAD) shows up … Read More CAD: Unless India reverses sustainably, net foreign assets may stay negative