Tag: Macro-economy


Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer

Financial Express India’s inflation trajectory has been stable leading to compressed differentials with the US: this led to a lower rate hike cycle and a possible longer-term lower yields Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) pause in its recent policy announcement has now been commented upon by many: it has been noted clearly that it is a pause, not a pivot. We look beyond the … Read More Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer


Green Finance: Mind your Ps and Qs

The Financial Express “Green finance” is not naturally low-cost finance; with their fiduciary duty, investors expect appropriate returns. Focus should be on enhancing sources of finance and structuring What is now undisputed is that the amounts of monies required for green transition runs into trillions of dollars over the next few decades – and this is just for India. Green transition is expensive – … Read More Green Finance: Mind your Ps and Qs


India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines

Financial Express For the month of December 2022, the purchase manager index (PMI) for India was 59.4, almost touching multi-decadal highs. PMI above 50 is taken to mean that an expansionary phase follows as confidence among participants is high and readings below indicate a contractionary phase. For large G20 countries like Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, the index ranged … Read More India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines


Crystal gazing global growth 2023

Indian Merchant’s Chamber (IMC) [opens pdf] The last few years have conclusively shown that real outcomes are a lot more interesting than what even the most egregious forecasts can imagine. Almost no forecast saw the coming of a pandemic, insurrection in a large democracy, a war and its mobilization, or the possibilities of nuclear attacks. Export curbs, trade disputes, and embargo on technological transfers … Read More Crystal gazing global growth 2023


Net Finance – A companion to Net Zero

The Financial Express India made five commitments at COP26: (1) it will increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030; (2) it will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030; (3) it will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes until 2030; (4) by 2030, it will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy … Read More Net Finance – A companion to Net Zero


EFGHIJK: Taking stock of the Indian economy

Exports, fiscal, growth, health, inflation, jobs, and capital: sizing up the dynamics in the Indian economy in these volatile times Financial Express In September last year, with two waves of Covid-19 largely behind us, we had taken a mid-year stock of the Indian economy using the EFGHIJ framework. We relook at these factors again as many macroeconomic factors have changed dramatically, especially in the … Read More EFGHIJK: Taking stock of the Indian economy

A day in the life of an Indian

 What the numbers say—how men and women spend their day differently; and how much bijli, sadak, paani can improve productivity Here’s a question that has been of interest to me: in a country of 1.4 billion people, if only approximately 400 million are in the workforce, what is it that the remaining billion people do?   We now have some answers. Time Use Survey … Read More A day in the life of an Indian


Finding investors for State debt

As States issue more debt, finding the investors who will subscribe to the issue will require expanding the current pool of investors and making the investment more lucrative. While there have been many deliberations in these pages on the growing amount of debt that the various tiers of the government (Centre and States) will have to raise, little discussion has gone into who they … Read More Finding investors for State debt


Getting the vaccine to a billion plus people

India can learn a lot from its experience in managing cash – getting a billion people what they need can be planned effectively. A vaccine for Covid-19 is expected to come sometime over the next few months – hopefully in this year. Once a vaccine is available, getting it to India’s billion plus people is a logistical challenge with many moral and ethical questions … Read More Getting the vaccine to a billion plus people


Making the frontier sector work

Many of the networks of value could start to become ‘utilities’ as they become more embedded in everyday lives. In the previous article, we introduced the idea of the D-sector. The three traditional sectors have a well-defined, or largely settled, understanding of the many elements that build them: (1) what resources are required, (2) employment and its regulations, (3) the path to skills, (4) … Read More Making the frontier sector work


Defining the frontier sector

The new normal after Covid-19 requires a re-imagining of macroeconomics: we need to start defining the contours of, and measuring, the fourth sector. (First of a two-part article) “There are three estates in Parliament but in the Reporters’ Gallery yonder there sits a Fourth Estate more important far than they all. It is not a figure of speech or witty saying, it is a … Read More Defining the frontier sector

Landmark Reforms in Indian Agriculture

Notes from a Live Webinar co-hosted by Axis Bank and agribazaar The panel was represented by senior government officials, investors, developmental agencies, agri-industrialists and a banker. The reforms undertaken by the Government were outlined and explained by the four Secretaries to the Government of India. These reforms have been variously called the “watershed moment”, “1991 moment”, and the “unshackling” of Indian agriculture, especially since … Read More Landmark Reforms in Indian Agriculture