Tag: India

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer

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Financial Express India’s inflation trajectory has been stable leading to compressed differentials with the US: this led to a lower rate hike cycle and a possible longer-term lower yields Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) pause in its recent policy announcement has now been commented upon by many: it has been noted clearly that it is a pause, not a pivot. We look beyond the … Read More Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer

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+ India, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines

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Financial Express For the month of December 2022, the purchase manager index (PMI) for India was 59.4, almost touching multi-decadal highs. PMI above 50 is taken to mean that an expansionary phase follows as confidence among participants is high and readings below indicate a contractionary phase. For large G20 countries like Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, the index ranged … Read More India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines

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+ Climate, Government, India, Public Policy

Sequestering the fiscal bounty

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The notional ‘saving’ of ~Rs 1 lakh crore on the fiscal deficit front offers India an opportunity to create a fund to deal with climate change Financial Express Fiscal year 2021-22 has been volatile, to say the least. The Budget for FY2022 was presented on Feb 1 last year at a time when the first wave of Covid-19 was firmly behind us. However, soon … Read More Sequestering the fiscal bounty

+ India, Macroeconomy

A day in the life of an Indian

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 What the numbers say—how men and women spend their day differently; and how much bijli, sadak, paani can improve productivity Here’s a question that has been of interest to me: in a country of 1.4 billion people, if only approximately 400 million are in the workforce, what is it that the remaining billion people do?   We now have some answers. Time Use Survey … Read More A day in the life of an Indian

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Medium-term dynamics for India post Covid-19 lockdown

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Shape of economic recovery will determine employment, debt and exchange rates. The immediate fiscal deficit dynamics and growth outcomes for India post Covid-19 lockdown have been the subject of intense analysis and discussion. The human crisis of lives and livelihood did demand both an immediate and urgent response. With the lockdown now opening and economic activity picking up, it is important to look beyond … Read More Medium-term dynamics for India post Covid-19 lockdown

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+ Others

Coronavirus crisis: Making your ‘Beyond COVID-19 Plan’ work

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COVID-19 could change entire industry ecosystems—what makes planning challenging is that it is not clear how permanent and deep the changes will be. By now you are deep in your business continuity planning (BCP)—if your organisation had planned it, good; if not, you have learnt its importance the hard way. The COVID-19 related disruption is such a seminal event in our generation that none … Read More Coronavirus crisis: Making your ‘Beyond COVID-19 Plan’ work

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+ India, Public Policy

The Ladder of Development and Progress

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Development and Progress go hand-in-hand; getting on and remaining on the ladders key to economic growth for individuals and nations. As India changed and economically progressed, it brought hope. There was indeed a pathway out of the poverty that the slow growth of the many decades had foisted upon the society. There was now a way to get out of ration queues to become … Read More The Ladder of Development and Progress

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+ Investments, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

Guiding markets from crisis to calm

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This requires confidence, coordination and capital; resolution can’t be imposed using policy actions. When commemorating anniversaries, we tend to reserve our special attention for round-number, decadal years. Last year, around this time, the world—and India—remembered and recounted its lessons from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that reverberated across the globe in September 2008. Since it is the nature of history to repeat, but not … Read More Guiding markets from crisis to calm

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+ India, Public Policy

Leveraging open data for policy making

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Large digital databases like the GST Network can give granular insight, create predictive models; this can lead to more grounded interventions. A lot has been said about the current economic slowdown. Econometricians have opined on whether the fall in growth rate is structural or cyclical; economists have wondered whether the response has to be from the supply side or whether demand needs a boost; … Read More Leveraging open data for policy making

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

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From purely a financial perspective of current account deficit, the distinction between goods and services does not matter. The exports performance of Vietnam continues to be contrasted with that of India: the most recent example being the editorial in this newspaper, “Can India learn from Vietnam to manage export-led growth?”. The article, similar to other analyses on this topic, focusses on the significant ramp-up … Read More Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

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+ India, Industries & sectors

India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

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The announcement of this policy statement in the Budget follows the release of the ‘Rupee Raftaar’ report at the Global Aviation Summit in Mumbai in January earlier this year. The Finance Minister, in her maiden budget, laid the foundation of building an important component of the aviation sector: “As the world’s third largest domestic aviation market, the time is ripe for India to enter … Read More India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

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+ India, Macroeconomy

India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

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The knife-edge balanced nature of Government finances means that there is little leeway available for the Central and State Governments whenever there is a shortfall in receipts or an increase in expenditure. In both cases, they automatically reflect in a substantial change in the fiscal deficit. As India moves towards a US$5 trillion GDP economy, the current slowdown and the longer-term runway offers two … Read More India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

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