Category: Macroeconomy

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer

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Financial Express India’s inflation trajectory has been stable leading to compressed differentials with the US: this led to a lower rate hike cycle and a possible longer-term lower yields Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) pause in its recent policy announcement has now been commented upon by many: it has been noted clearly that it is a pause, not a pivot. We look beyond the … Read More Decoupled: Better inflation dynamics can lower yields in India for longer

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+ Climate, Investments, Macroeconomy

Green Finance: Mind your Ps and Qs

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The Financial Express “Green finance” is not naturally low-cost finance; with their fiduciary duty, investors expect appropriate returns. Focus should be on enhancing sources of finance and structuring What is now undisputed is that the amounts of monies required for green transition runs into trillions of dollars over the next few decades – and this is just for India. Green transition is expensive – … Read More Green Finance: Mind your Ps and Qs

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+ India, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines

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Financial Express For the month of December 2022, the purchase manager index (PMI) for India was 59.4, almost touching multi-decadal highs. PMI above 50 is taken to mean that an expansionary phase follows as confidence among participants is high and readings below indicate a contractionary phase. For large G20 countries like Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, the index ranged … Read More India macro-2023: Prepare while the sun shines

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+ India, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

Crystal gazing global growth 2023

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Indian Merchant’s Chamber (IMC) [opens pdf] The last few years have conclusively shown that real outcomes are a lot more interesting than what even the most egregious forecasts can imagine. Almost no forecast saw the coming of a pandemic, insurrection in a large democracy, a war and its mobilization, or the possibilities of nuclear attacks. Export curbs, trade disputes, and embargo on technological transfers … Read More Crystal gazing global growth 2023

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+ Climate, Government, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

Fiscal considerations of the Green transition

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State of public finances has a direct impact on Green policies that Government can pursue – the range of policy options gets shaped by the need for more revenues or the ability to spend them Financial Express India’s commitment to Net Zero by 2070, has well and truly set the course for a Green transition in the country. Many aspects of this once-in-a-lifetime change … Read More Fiscal considerations of the Green transition

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+ India, Macroeconomy

EFGHIJK: Taking stock of the Indian economy

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Exports, fiscal, growth, health, inflation, jobs, and capital: sizing up the dynamics in the Indian economy in these volatile times Financial Express In September last year, with two waves of Covid-19 largely behind us, we had taken a mid-year stock of the Indian economy using the EFGHIJ framework. We relook at these factors again as many macroeconomic factors have changed dramatically, especially in the … Read More EFGHIJK: Taking stock of the Indian economy

+ Government, India, Investments, Macroeconomy

India’s Union Budget FY2023 – Impetus for investments and capex

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Financial Express Indian government presented an investment-oriented budget with a focus on getting future ready. Increasing public investments and capital expenditure are expected to take the combined (Centre plus States) public capex to more than 4% of GDP in FY2023 from ~3% over the last few years. Advance growth estimates for FY2022 of 9.2% make India the fastest growing large economy: the increased capex … Read More India’s Union Budget FY2023 – Impetus for investments and capex

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+ Government, India, Macroeconomy

India: Getting ready for global macro resets

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Second wave of Covid-19 is now behind us. Localized lockdowns are opening, economic activity is coming back to pre-pandemic levels, and vaccinations are now proceeding apace with large, assured supply over the next few months. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has eased monetary conditions for the stressed sectors and Government has extended its program for support to the vulnerable. With fiscal space available as … Read More India: Getting ready for global macro resets

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+ India, Investments, Macroeconomy

Infra investment plans: India and the USA

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Financial Express Two of the largest democracies have embarked on a massive capital investment planover the next few years US President Biden recently announced a two-part plan to invest in the USA: first part of the plan details a USD 2.2 trillion investment in “hard” infrastructure and second part, the families plan, puts in USD 1.8 trillion in “soft” infrastructure. The combined plan, at … Read More Infra investment plans: India and the USA

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+ India, Macroeconomy

India’s USD 550 bn stimulus

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Relaxation in fiscal deficit targets creates enhanced fiscal space for India: this offers an opportunity to build India Financial Express Last month was abuzz with many commentaries on the Union Budget 2021-22 – the document was dissected for its numbers and narrative. Many new and bold ideas such as privatization of public sector undertakings (as the Government confines itself largely to the strategic sectors), … Read More India’s USD 550 bn stimulus

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+ India, Investments, Macroeconomy

Hedging INR for the long-term

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Foreign investors with long-term commitments to Indian infrastructure need the ability to hedge their currency exposure in India. The exposure can typically last for multiple decades, especially in the context of infrastructure. The recently concluded Virtual Global Investor Conference saw large global investors recommitting to their interest in investing in India for the long-term. For investors, the return they seek is dependent on the … Read More Hedging INR for the long-term

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+ Government, Macroeconomy, Public Policy

Larger incomes to tax or larger taxes on incomes?

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Budget 2020 cares for people’s economic aspirations, says Axis Bank’s Akhilesh Tilotia

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