Category: India

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Medium-term dynamics for India post Covid-19 lockdown

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Shape of economic recovery will determine employment, debt and exchange rates. The immediate fiscal deficit dynamics and growth outcomes for India post Covid-19 lockdown have been the subject of intense analysis and discussion. The human crisis of lives and livelihood did demand both an immediate and urgent response. With the lockdown now opening and economic activity picking up, it is important to look beyond … Read More Medium-term dynamics for India post Covid-19 lockdown

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+ India, Public Policy

Building “digital cocoons” for the population

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Covid-19 highlights the importance of and urgent need to build ‘digital cocoons’ for the whole population. The Covid-19 series of lock-downs have brought very different experiences for varied segments of society: the contrast cannot be starker than the social media posts of fancy meals at home compared to the long walks back to hometowns. What explains the difference? Those who have been able to … Read More Building “digital cocoons” for the population

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+ India, Others

Coronavirus: Flattening the curve

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Building liquidity infrastructure and solution and protecting incomes required in the short-term; rebuilding trust in the long-term. We looked at some of the possible impacts of social distancing in the previous article. As various supply chains get disrupted due to sudden convulsions of demand and supply, the impact will be as much social as economic. The public health systems across the world are gearing … Read More Coronavirus: Flattening the curve

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+ India, Public Policy

The Ladder of Development and Progress

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Development and Progress go hand-in-hand; getting on and remaining on the ladders key to economic growth for individuals and nations. As India changed and economically progressed, it brought hope. There was indeed a pathway out of the poverty that the slow growth of the many decades had foisted upon the society. There was now a way to get out of ration queues to become … Read More The Ladder of Development and Progress

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Here’s why India may end up choosing capital flows over current account flows

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India may end up implicitly choosing a stance of preferring capital flows over current account flows, if it sets a GDP target in a foreign currency. A currency serves two purposes: medium of exchange and store of value. We have explored this idea in these pages in a different context earlier when we looked at the relationship between legacy finance firms and fintech companies. … Read More Here’s why India may end up choosing capital flows over current account flows

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+ India, Public Policy

A flight plan for tech regulation

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The onus falls on business to continue to engender society’s and regulators’ trust in the usefulness of technology. New technologies bring with them challenges of regulation. The key challenges facing regulators in the context of drones are privacy, safety and security. Drones have captured headlines this week. The spectacular drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities knocked out ~5% of daily oil supply. The … Read More A flight plan for tech regulation

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+ India, Public Policy

Leveraging open data for policy making

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Large digital databases like the GST Network can give granular insight, create predictive models; this can lead to more grounded interventions. A lot has been said about the current economic slowdown. Econometricians have opined on whether the fall in growth rate is structural or cyclical; economists have wondered whether the response has to be from the supply side or whether demand needs a boost; … Read More Leveraging open data for policy making

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+ India, Macroeconomy

Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

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From purely a financial perspective of current account deficit, the distinction between goods and services does not matter. The exports performance of Vietnam continues to be contrasted with that of India: the most recent example being the editorial in this newspaper, “Can India learn from Vietnam to manage export-led growth?”. The article, similar to other analyses on this topic, focusses on the significant ramp-up … Read More Arresting slowdown: Export focus fine, but there’s more to growth

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+ India, Industries & sectors

India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

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The announcement of this policy statement in the Budget follows the release of the ‘Rupee Raftaar’ report at the Global Aviation Summit in Mumbai in January earlier this year. The Finance Minister, in her maiden budget, laid the foundation of building an important component of the aviation sector: “As the world’s third largest domestic aviation market, the time is ripe for India to enter … Read More India must learn from China about aircraft leasing

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+ India, Macroeconomy

India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

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The knife-edge balanced nature of Government finances means that there is little leeway available for the Central and State Governments whenever there is a shortfall in receipts or an increase in expenditure. In both cases, they automatically reflect in a substantial change in the fiscal deficit. As India moves towards a US$5 trillion GDP economy, the current slowdown and the longer-term runway offers two … Read More India’s future fiscal architecture: Disinvest and Redesign

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